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Arch Energies — Natural Hydrogen Project Model

A green-energy venture working on extracting natural hydrogen from the ground — a market so new that credible benchmarks barely exist. The modeling work here was research-first: understand the niche deeply, then build the financial case on top of it.

Industry
Green Energy
Model Type
Project finance
Focus
Natural hydrogen extraction
Client
Arch Energies

When the market is this new, research is most of the model.

Arch Energies is working on a green-energy initiative around natural hydrogen — hydrogen that can be drilled from the ground rather than manufactured. It's a genuinely niche, emerging market: there are no decades of pricing data, no standard cost curves, and very few comparable projects to anchor against.

That made this engagement as much a research project as a modeling one. Before any spreadsheet logic could be trusted, we had to understand the extraction approach, the cost structure of getting hydrogen out of the ground, who would buy it, and at what price — and where this method sits against manufactured hydrogen alternatives.

It's a large project, and a confidential one. We can describe how we worked; the specifics stay with the client.

The process, step by step.

Stage 01
Call
We started with the Arch Energies team to understand the initiative: the science in plain terms, the project phases, the capital required, and the story the model needed to support.
Stage 02
Deep market research
The bulk of the early work. We researched the natural hydrogen landscape — extraction economics, the emerging demand side, pricing reference points, and comparable early-stage energy projects — to give every assumption a defensible source.
Stage 03
Model build
A project-finance style build: capital expenditure phasing, production scenarios, operating costs, and the long-horizon cash flow profile typical of energy projects — with sensitivities on the variables that matter most in a young market.
Stage 04
Iteration with the team
Emerging-market models can't be built in one pass. We iterated with the team as the project's assumptions sharpened, keeping the model aligned with what the research could actually support.

A research-backed financial case for a market being born.

Market sizing
The realistic demand picture for natural hydrogen — built bottom-up from research, not from a headline TAM figure.
Capex phasing
Exploration, drilling, and development capital laid out across project phases.
Production scenarios
Output cases reflecting the genuine uncertainty of a first-of-its-kind extraction effort.
Operating economics
Cost per unit of hydrogen produced, benchmarked against manufactured-hydrogen alternatives.
Long-horizon cash flows
Energy-project timelines, modeled honestly — including the years before revenue.
Sensitivity analysis
Which assumptions move the project's viability most, and by how much.
Why there are no screenshots here

The project is confidential and the market is competitive, so the model and its figures stay private. The process above is exactly how we'd approach your project — ask us about it on a call.

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